Economic Research – EMC Consulting

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The COVID-19 pandemic could have pushed up to half of Lao migrant workers in Thailand out of work

We knew the COVID-19 in Lao PDR and Thailand, and the subsequent lockdown would be difficult for workers and their families. However, we had hoped the impact of the pandemic would not be this severe. We at Emerging Markets Consulting have been working on ways to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on migrant workers in Lao PDR and Thailand on behalf of the International Organization for Migration. It is a complicated task, with few precedents in the research literature. The results,...

July 8, 2021

By VirasakSokunEconomic Research, Uncategorized

Human trafficking in Lao PDR – who is vulnerable?

After more than 15 years of strong economic growth, the official poverty rate in the Lao PDR has declined significantly. Nevertheless, there remain many districts throughout the country with very high rates of poverty. In addition, many Lao people live just above the poverty line. These people are vulnerable to falling back below it in the event of agricultural or health shocks. This can make them vulnerable to human trafficking. Lao PDR labour market The Lao labour market is characterized by a...

March 2, 2020

By Michael SmiddyEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

The Financing Gap Faced by SMEs

This post on the financing gap is based on EMC Consulting’s 2018-19 work for the Dutch Good Growth Fund (DGGF) ‘Investment Fund Local SMEs’, an initiative of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The study was commissioned to better understand the ‘missing middle’ in the Mekong region – those businesses that have outgrown microfinancing but do not yet have access to conventional financial services. We used the ANDE framework for analysing countries' entrepreneurial ecosystems. In-depth country studies were undertaken in...

September 10, 2019

By Michael SmiddyEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Gazelles in Myanmar and Cambodia

This post about business "gazelles" is based on EMC Consulting’s 2018-19 work for the Dutch Good Growth Fund (DGGF) ‘Investment Fund Local SMEs’, an initiative of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The study was commissioned to better understand the ‘missing middle’ in the Mekong region – those businesses that have outgrown microfinancing but do not yet have access to conventional financial services. We used the ANDE framework for analysing countries' entrepreneurial ecosystems. In-depth country studies were undertaken in Cambodia,...

June 3, 2019

By Michael SmiddyEconomic Research

SMEs in the Mekong Region are not all alike

This post is based on EMC Consulting’s 2018-19 work for the Dutch Good Growth Fund (DGGF) ‘Investment Fund Local SMEs’, an initiative of the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The study was commissioned to better understand the ‘missing middle’ in the Mekong region – those SMEs that have outgrown microfinancing but do not yet have access to conventional financial services. We used the ANDE framework for analysing countries' entrepreneurial ecosystems. In-depth country studies were undertaken in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar...

April 2, 2019

By Michael SmiddyEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Lao PDR SME: Opportunities

Lao PDR has grown relatively rapidly, but needs to focus on the non-resource sector to innovate, diversify its economy and generate more inclusive wealth. SME are a key component of that strategy. Boosting Lao PDR SME As Lao PDR is a small (6.7 M) land locked country, but conveniently located and part of ASEAN, a lot of growth will require developing stronger, value added exports. This journey begins with dramatically improving the enabling environment to start up and grow small and medium...

September 22, 2018

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Climate Change & Hydro Dams

We recently did some work on the 'green growth potential' of the Cambodian economy and currently are working on a assessment of the economic potential in the Khone Falls transboundary region of Lao PDR and Cambodia. So it's a good time to reflect on the impacts of climate change in Cambodia. Climate change is predicted to most negatively impact the global south countries, which are the countries least able to adapt and respond. Broadly, an increase in temperature and annual precipitation...

August 19, 2018

By tottenEconomic Research

Green Growth Lao PDR

EMC conducted a Green Growth Potential Assessment (GGPA) during 2016-2017 to assist the Government of the Lao PDR (GoL) in formulating its national green growth strategy and support the national administration in policy design and implementation. The project was undertaken for the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), which is advising the National Institute for Economic Research in this process. We also worked closely with Dr. John Ward, of the Mekong Region Futures Institute. GGPA Concept (source: GGGI) The GGGI is a treaty-based...

March 20, 2018

By tottenEconomic Research, Strategy

Cambodia’s entrepreneurial ecosystem – new perspectives

The Dutch Good Growth Fund (DGGF), in cooperation with EMC Consulting and Cambodian Women Entrepreneurs Association, gathered local stakeholders to discuss new perspectives on Cambodia's entrepreneurial ecosystem. On 12th December 2017, local stakeholders from Cambodia’s entrepreneurial ecosystem gathered in Phnom Penh to share their appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of the ecosystem and elaborate together potential solutions to contribute to a more conducive operating environment for local entrepreneurs and their businesses. 34 representatives from financial institutions, business associations, development...

December 13, 2017

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Cambodia Economy in Charts

This is a quick summary of the Cambodia economy and outlook based on data as of Nov 2017 - GDP and GDP growth, sectoral composition, exports, services, labor market issues and business constraints. It's not supposed to be detailed analysis, but may be useful timesaver for those interested in this topic. We put the slides together to facilitate discussion on employment opportunities for those at risk of trafficking and unsafe migration (at Chab Dai bi-annual members' meeting 2017). It's an...

November 25, 2017

By Matt van RoosmalenEconomic Research

Giving Credit Where Credit’s Due..

World Bank Doing Business Cambodia has barely budged with overall ranking declining slightly from 131 to 135 (2017 v 2018). There are many things of interest to comment on in WB DB stats. What's particularly interesting, for purposes of this post, is Cambodia's extraordinary performance in the metric 'Getting Credit', where it scores 20th of 190 economies world-wide. That is ahead of not only the Mekong family (Lao PDR 79, Myanmar 177) but wealthy ASEAN cousins (Singapore, 29) and my home...

November 6, 2017

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

energy efficiency

Energy Efficiency – Cambodia’s Industrial Sector

Energy Efficiency improves a firm's competitiveness (less cost) and the environment we all share (less emissions). This blog post summarizes the energy and energy efficiency situation in Cambodia. It's a summary of the initial phase of a pre-feasibility study (PFS) for a 'fund' to encourage Cambodian SME to invest in energy efficiency. EMC completed the original study for the National Council for Sustainable Development (Royal Government of Cambodia) and the Global Green Growth Institute. The study was motivated by the earlier...

October 8, 2017

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Governance in Mining Sector

Governance of Cambodia’s Mining Industry

EMC report, Cambodia's Mineral Exploration Licensing Process: Governance Risk Assessment aims to identify and analyse governance risks associated with the process for granting mineral exploration license in Cambodia. The study is in line with the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) efforts to improve the governance system in mining sector and their recently adopted initiative to enhance effectiveness of the Ministerial Exploration Process. This assessment was conducted by Emerging Markets Consulting (EMC) with support from Transparency International Cambodia (TI-Cambodia), using the...

September 24, 2017

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Lao PDR: The Labor Shortage

Labor and Skills shortage is one of 4 particular hurdles faced by SME in Lao PDR, according to our report "Business Formalization in Lao PDR". The post looks at causes and the impact on firms' competitiveness and the economy. Labor and Skills Shortage A clear finding of this study is that shortages of labor and skills are among the biggest constraints facing the private sector in the Lao PDR. Whereas a shortage of skilled labor is a challenge common to many developing...

September 23, 2017

By k4mediaEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Informal SME in Lao PDR

Many businesses in Lao PDR remain informal, and struggle to grow into medium-sized and large businesses that are capable of providing decent work for large numbers of Lao PDR citizens. This is 2 of 3 blog posts based on our recent report "Business Formalization in the Lao PDR". Growing Small and Medium Sized Firms (SME) The private sector in the Lao PDR is highly fragmented. Official figures for registered enterprises show that small enterprises (1-19 employees) comprise about 99% of all enterprises...

September 23, 2017

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Economic Growth In Lao PDR

This blog, taken from EMC report "Business Formalization in Lao PDR" (Sept 2016) considers whether Lao PDR's strong rates of economic growth are masking some underlying weaknesses in the productivity and profitability of many private sector enterprises, and in particular SME. Economic Performance The macroeconomic performance of the Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has been remarkably strong and stable over a sustained period of time. In the decade to 2015, the economy grew by an average of 7.8% per year, with...

September 23, 2017

By k4mediaEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

SMEs’ use of finance – CLMV

As part of our work for the Dutch Good Growth Fund #ClosingTheGap series, we analysed 2016 data from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys to paint a nuanced picture of small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam. SMEs are not a homogeneous group. Hence their finance and development needs are different. SMEs' use of financial services differs not just across the four countries, but according to the type of SME. We segment SMEs according to their size and growth into a number...

September 13, 2017

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Obstacles faced by SMEs in CLMV

As part of our work for the Dutch Good Growth Fund #ClosingTheGap series, we analysed data from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys to understand the obstacles faced by small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam. In-depth country studies were undertaken in Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam. SMEs are not a homogeneous group. They report different obstacles and constraints - depending on their location, their size, and other characteristics. And these obstacles change over time. Business obstacles by country and size Access...

September 13, 2017

By k4mediaEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Cambodia’s SMEs

As part of our work for the Dutch Good Growth Fund #ClosingTheGap series, we have analysed 2016 data from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys to paint a nuanced picture of Cambodia's small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs). SMEs are not a homogeneous group. Hence their financing and development needs are different. Finding the Gazelles Segmenting Cambodia's SMEs by size and growth highlights that the majority are small and low-growth ("necessity entrepreneurs"), but a small number are larger and faster-growing ("Small growing businesses" and "Gazelles"). Source:...

September 13, 2017

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Cambodia: Reducing the gender gap

Women make a major contribution to the Cambodian economy, including by owning and managing the majority of businesses. Yet they face a number of particular barriers. Women are more likely to be illiterate and less likely to have completed primary and secondary education than men. This means they face greater challenges in business registration and obtaining and interpreting business regulations and information. Social norms can make it more difficult for women to interact with male government officials. Hence there may...

August 13, 2017

By k4mediaEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Unlocking Cambodia’s Potential

Our report 'Unlocking the Potential of the Cambodian Private Sector' has been published here. This study was carried out under the Mekong Business Initiative project (MBI). The MBI is a regional technical assistance project funded by the Government of Australia and the Asian Development Bank. This article is a summary of the report. Cambodia’s economic performance has been strong for more than a decade, with real GDP growth averaging around 8% per year since 2001. Poverty rates have fallen, literacy and primary...

August 7, 2017

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

USAID counter trafficking in persons (CTIP)

Emerging Markets Consulting (EMC) is very pleased to contribute to CTIP and look forward to successful collaboration. CTIP will work with civil society, governments and private sector to reduce human trafficking in Asia. The program will initially focus on human trafficking in the Lower Mekong countries of Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam as well as Bangladesh. Recent examples of EMC relevant work include: Economic motivation for outbound migration from Cambodia (USAID) Job opportunities for migrant workers in Myanmar Impact of...

January 12, 2017

By Matt van RoosmalenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Migration from Cambodia and the Domestic Labor Market

What is the typical profile of a potential migrant from Cambodia, and what are the drivers that lead individuals to migrate abroad? Recent research commissioned by USAID and carried out by EMC has attempted to answer these questions, and to investigate how one might address migration push factors that make it unattractive for vulnerable populations to remain in the country. The majority of Cambodia’s migrants migrate through unsafe channels and without official travel documents, and are therefore at a heightened risk of...

October 2, 2016

By k4mediaEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Refugee

Refugee Employment and Income Generation Opportunities

Burmese refugees have been crossing the border into Thailand since 1984, fleeing incessant fighting in South-eastern Myanmar, religious and ethnic persecution and resulting economic hardship. However as political change in Myanmar enables voluntary repatriation of Burmese refugees, the need arises for technical and vocational skills to generate sustainable income both in the camps and in Myanmar. In this context, Handicap International (HI) with funding support of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), commissioned EMC to...

September 28, 2016

By tottenEconomic Research

What is a property bubble?

Our other post examines the current state of the Phnom Penh property market. This post explains what a bubble is and why property can behave differently from other asset classes. What is a bubble? A bubble is a situation where the price of something is higher than its fair (or intrinsic) value. That is, the price is above that supported by economic conditions (“fundamentals”). The fundamental value of an asset is the present value of all future cash flow that the asset...

May 24, 2016

By Michael SmiddyEconomic Research, Market Entry & Investment

Is there a bubble in Phnom Penh property?

In 2009–10, Phnom Penh property prices fell around 40% and did not recover until 2014. Are we in another property bubble, and what might trigger another crash? Boom town Real estate is booming in Phnom Penh. There are many new developments, and prices have increased significantly over recent years. Land prices in most central areas of Phnom Penh have doubled since 2010 – in Chroy Chang Va they have tripled. A large number of condominiums have been recently constructed and more are under...

May 24, 2016

By k4mediaEconomic Research, Market Entry & Investment

Employer Perceptions Across ASEAN – ILO

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), a single regional common market and production base, will become a reality in 2015 for the 600 million women and men of the 10 ASEAN Member States. This will lead to the freer flow of goods, services, investment and skilled labour in the region. New opportunities for growth and prosperity are likely to emerge, but the challenge is to ensure that growth is inclusive and prosperity is shared. For businesses, the AEC poses a range of...

February 21, 2016

By tottenEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Improving Trade and Logistics in Cambodia

Cambodia sits in a dynamic region (sandwiched between the economies of Thailand and Vietnam) and its best hope for improving livelihoods is to integrate further into the dynamic ASEAN region. Weak logistics have long impeded Cambodia’s progress in realising its trade potential, however, because export costs are higher than Thailand and Vietnam. Cambodia’s farmers and manufacturers encounter difficulties in moving goods to markets; exporters face challenges in supplying overseas customers and integration into regional production networks remains challenging. World Bank Group,...

February 21, 2016

By k4mediaEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

EMC speaking at seminar on ASEAN RVC

The growth of ASEAN in the global economy represents a great opportunity for Lao, and other lower income economies. ASEAN boasts world class universities to develop new products, educated and youthful population to make them, global financial centres and easy access to world markets. The David Totten (EMC), at seminar on Lao PDR integration in to Regional Value Chains ASEAN firms at the forefront of this process, seek to sustain a competitive advantage, by arranging their supply chains, in the most value maximizing way....

February 14, 2016

By k4mediaEconomic Research, Private Sector Development

Thank You To Our Clients & Partners In 2015

A big thank you to all our clients and partners in 2015. Across all countries, we worked with over 42 organisations – many of them multiple times. We worked directly for the Governments of Lao PDR and Cambodia (Evaluation of Business Assistance Fund, and National Biodigester Program respectively). We undertook several projects for each of the major multilaterals; ADB, World Bank and the UN (ILO, UNICEF and WFP), in trade, ASEAN integration, private sector development and social research. We also worked...

February 3, 2016

By tottenEconomic Research, Evaluation Impact, Market Development, Market Entry & Investment, Private Sector Development, Strategy